No. 325
FROM: Tokyo (Matsuoka)
TO: Rio de Janeiro
November 30, 1940
# 2569.
Circular—4 parts—complete.
European Intelligence: (2nd part of Report # 5).
(6) The position of the Soviet becomes increasingly important, and there is no change in the situation which makes it advantageous for both Germany and the Soviet mutually to maintain friendly relations. While Germany is not failing to keep troops ready on her frontiers facing Russia, on the other hand, she is steadily advancing her diplomatic negotiations with the Soviet. Ostensibly, the reasons for the peaceful penetration of Rumania by the German Army on 7 October last, were the preservation of peace and the guarantee of natural resources in those areas, but this ----- stationed large forces near the northern part of Finland, near the German-Soviet boundary in former Polish territory, and in Slovakia, ----- it is recognized that one object in it is a restraint upon the Soviet. Again, on the other hand, Germany seems of late to have been having her Ambassador Schulenburg in Russia, push negotiations regarding the Balkan problems that center in the Soviet's attitude toward Turkey, the Danube problem, and regarding economic relations between Germany and Russia; and on 19 November, Molotov visited Hitler in Berlin. According to information received the object of their conversation is reported to have been to demonstrate the stability of German-Soviet relations, and to create an occasion for further strengthening these relations. It also afforded opportunity to explain, in regard to political problems, the invasion of Rumania by Germany (the Soviet had requested such explanation several weeks before). The question of the Straits was left for conversation between Turkey and the Soviet, and assurances were given that German naval forces would not put in an appearance in the Black sea.
In the matter of economic problems, it was agreed that these should be worked out along the lines of the agreement reached in February of this year, and that negotiations regarding this should be continued in Moscow.
(7) To sum up, now that winter is setting in, the situation in Europe at present seems to make the once widely-heralded German plan for landing operations on England proper less and less possible of being carried out. The defenses of the British Isles, on the other hand, are
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gradually being strengthened so that a long drawn out war becomes more and more inevitable, while at the same time the locale of the war is being further extended in the Balkan and Mediterranean areas. While we need to be constantly on the watch as to the possibility of the conclusion of a peace between Germany and England, under present circumstances (there is nothing) to make one think this will be realized.
Trans. 12-11-40
No. 326
FROM: Berlin (Kurusu)
TO: Washington
January 29, 1941
# 77.
Message to Tokyo. (Part 1 of 2).
Strictly secret.Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
On the 28th, the one person in the know close to Foreign Minister VON RIBBENTROP confidentially told me about the European situation in this wire:
"1. In the Mediterranean area the activities of the German air arm have not as yet reached their maximum efficiency. This is doubtless because of the inadequacy of the air bases on the island of Sicily. It has fallen to the lot of the German Army at the present time to hurry construction work, which it will take at least another month to complete. Germany soon will launch her armed forces against the Greeks and at the same time start military activities in order to close Gibraltar and the Suez. After the elapse of three or four months, the situation in the Mediterranean will have undergone a complete change.
"2. Though there are many rumors circulating, we do not believe that an invasion of the British Isles can be carried out in less than three or four months. Regardless of what is said, air raids and submarine warfare cannot be very effective during the winter. With the coming of spring that type of warfare will be stepped up. Submarines, before the elapse of another month, will be operating on a conspicuously all-out program and their activities will be several times what they have been heretofore. Destruction of commerce will be carried out with even greater effectiveness. It is HITLER's intention to carry out the invasion of the British Isles with as little sacrifice as possible. It would seem that military activities are waiting upon the arrival of spring, but because that interval of rest seems long, various and sundry rumors have begun to circulate. In accordance with his usual practice, HITLER will make a speech on the 30th (in celebration of his assumption as REICHSKANZLER) and will doubtless refer to various aspects of these plans.
"3. In regard to Franco-German relations, it is evident that a notable change is being made. Heretofore, since the armistice agreement, Germany has been urging France to cooperate in the war against England. PETAIN, too, as just on the point of coming around to this point of view, but just then, as an outgrowth of the failure of the fiasco of the Italian armed forces in the Mediterranean area, the Vichy Government has commenced a program of fence-straddling. We had to deal with such things as the imprisonment of LAVAL and the disharmonious attitude of General WEYGAND, but because Germany still holds, in the palm of her hand, the fate of the French Home Government, PETAIN suddenly last Christmas sent a message to HITLER seeking more favorable terms, but the German authorities put off making a reply for another month. Having disturbed the peace of mind of Vichy, Germany is now just about ready to give her answer. In short, this reply will cause France to cooperate in the war against England and RUUBEERU's resignation can be considered as a definite indication of that."
Trans. 2-3-41
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No. 327
January 20, 1941
Message to Tokyo. (Part 2 of 2).
"4. There has been no special change in German-Soviet relations. The fact is, during the summer of last year relations had considerably cooled, but because of the behind-the-scene endeavors of Ambassador SCHULENBERG [a], relations have begun to move in happier channels. Then came MOLOTOV's visit to Berlin. After that the establishment of an economic agreement could be viewed with certainty and relations are on the whole progressing satisfactorily. However, there is something about the relationship concerning which we cannot be completely at ease. (By the way, in spite of the fact that Germany's trade with England and the American continent has come to a standstill, the quantity is rapidly approaching the amount prior to the war. This is due to an increase in commodity transitions between Germany and the various countries of Europe. The fact is that they are importing more machine parts than ever before: It seems that the Soviet has not been able to transport as much American imports as was expected). Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
"5. With respect to relations with the United States, Germany is exhibiting a very long suffering attitude. We are handling the recent incident in which the flag was lowered from the San Francisco Consular Office very lightly. But rather than to say that it is but a stratagem to prevent America's participation in the war just as we are about to invade the British Isles, it is more definitely out of consideration for America's activities after the invasion is over. Germany fears that America, after the invasion of England has been completed, might, first of all, help England and then wage a long war against Germany along with England."
Relayed to Italy, Russia, Turkey and the United States. Relay message from Turkey to England.
[a] German Ambassador to Russia.
No. 328
FROM: Berlin (Osima ?)
TO: Tokyo
March 26, 1941
# 308.
Hearing that Field Marshal GOERING had returned to Berlin, I put in a request for a conference with him. I was granted an interview today, the 26th, and our conversation ran as follows:
1. GOERING began by fervently stating, "From the bottom of my heart I am glad that we concluded the Three-Power Alliance. It is our idea, through the exercise of the Three-Power Alliance, to most assuredly establish a new world led by the two countries, Japan and Germany. I wish to know if Japan, too, entertains the same expectations of the Three-Power Alliance." I replied: "The fact that the Imperial government has made this Alliance the very hub of its diplomacy and the fact that Foreign Minister MATSUOKA is visiting Berlin show that we do. However, I must explain to you that we must be careful not to let this fact come into the propaganda schemes of England and the United States."
2. GOERING next explained that German military action has for the present given way principally to political activities and went on to say that Germany was perfectly confident of giving England a death blow; that the attack upon England would not fail; that in this venture
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Germany would use an all-out combination of every resource she has; and that the immense air arm of which he, GOERING, is the Commander in Chief, would be the deciding factor in Germany's victory.
3. Concerning the Soviet, GOERING stated: "First, we will defeat England and next, the Soviet, and in the policy of ours there is no change. In this connection let me state that you Japanese will have to cooperate with us for a long time."
4. GOERING stated: "It is necessary for Japan to attack Singapore." And I replied: "Well, on that score I would rather you contact Foreign Minister MATSUOKA when he arrives."
5. GOERING concluded: "I have every confidence that the Japanese Imperial Forces will overcome every difficulty in China and, if there is anything my department can do for you, do not hesitate frankly to let me know." I expressed my appreciation of this and thanked him for the solicitude and kindness of the German Air Army.
Will you transmit this message to the Ministers of the Military and Naval Departments?
Trans. 3-29-41
No. 329
FROM: Berlin
TO: Hsinking
March 27, 1941
# 56.
One of my employees has recently had some contacts with various local German officials. They tell him that between the time Bulgaria joined the Axis and Yugoslavia's recent entry, the patient attitude which Germany had been maintaining toward the Soviet has undergone a considerable change. It appears that the Soviet is getting anxious concerning her Balkan neighbors and may be entering into some collusion with Great Britain to stay Germany's hand in that area. Right after Yugoslavia's adherence to the Axis was sealed in Belgrade parades denouncing this action were staged in front of the British, American and Soviet ministries and their respective flags were raised at the gates. Thus, it is being surmised that after Yugoslavia's decision to join the alliance, British agents got busy and that the Soviet has promised assistance to dissenting groups.
Trans. 4-3-41
No. 330
Part 2 of 2 [a].
Thus, the measures which Germany has recently taken to meet this situation, quite aside from any considerations concerning England, may quite possibly also be aimed resolutely at the Soviet. It can be seen that lately Germany has made noticeable preparations to meet any hostility from Russia, and according to what I recently heard from a certain influential person, I feel quite justified in coming to this conclusion.
[a] For part 1 see I, 329, in which Berlin wires Hsinking of conversation with local German officials re activities of Soviet in Balkan countries.
Trans. 4-4-41
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